s Laura’s tragic case illustrates, the HPV vaccine was met with skepticism and fear, with some parents opting not to give the vaccine to their children despite its proven lifesaving benefits. A COVID-19 vaccine may be met with the same attitude. An NPR poll from May 2020 indicated that 49% of Americans would get the vaccine. If the NPR poll holds true, what can we say about herd immunity for COVID-19 in the United States after 49% of the population receives an effective vaccine?
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Herd immunity will arise between a combination of 49% being vaccinated and others being exposed to the disease, thereby developing immunity to reinfection.
The US will not have achieved herd immunity, which typically requires 80–95% of the population being vaccinated.
Herd immunity is achieved when 40% of the population is vaccinated, so if 49% of the population gets vaccinated, the US will have achieved herd immunity.
By the time the vaccine is released, the US will have already achieved herd immunity because enough people will develop immunity through being exposed to and surviving the disease.