A biologist has determined that a particular osprey has a 70% chance of catching a fish on any given day. Carry out a simulation of 20 trials using the random number table below to find the probability that the osprey will actually catch a fish on all of the next three days. Explain your method.
945 025 354 793 236
106 746 981 105 012
832 180 250 871 835
793 726 864 496 947
To simulate the osprey's chances of catching a fish on each of the next three days, we will use the random numbers in groups of three to determine if the osprey caught a fish or not.
We will consider a random number less than or equal to 70 as a success (osprey catches a fish) and anything greater than 70 as a failure (osprey does not catch a fish).
Here is how the simulation would look:
Day 1:
945 - Failure
025 - Success
354 - Success
Day 2:
793 - Success
236 - Success
106 - Success
Day 3:
746 - Success
981 - Failure
105 - Success
By following this process and using the random numbers provided, we can conduct 20 trials to determine the probability that the osprey will catch a fish on all of the next three days.