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You are on a TV show. You have been asked to either play a dice game five times or accept a $50 bill. The dice game works like this:

If you roll a 1, 2 or 3, you win $46.

If you roll a 4 or 5, you lose $22.

If you roll a 6, you lose $85.

Should you play the game? Use expected values and decision theory to justify your answer. (Round the answer to the nearest cent.)

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3 answers

  1. The expected winning per game is
    (1/2)*46 - (1/3)*22 - (1/6)*85

    If that is positive, play the game

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  2. Take the $50 and quit.

    (Each game as outlined by drwls has an expected value of $1.50.
    You are playing it 5 times, so the expected return is $7.50.
    Your choice was to either accept $50 or play the game)

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  3. Reiny is correct. I assumed you were betting your own money. I didn't read all the question.

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